With knowledge or expertise on the x-axis and skill on the vertical axis; we're going to postulate that "conviction" seems to be an S-shaped curve, rising slowly at first and then zooming to unrealistic levels. Realised skill, on the other hand, is far more likely to grow at a decreasing return to effort in a much smoother way, topping out at the limit.

Background reading on the weak correlation between self-assessment and performance in this article.

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