Stuart’s Breakfast Orange; 2021 Economic Outlook; Born to Die, Lucky to Live
21 is lucky; it is the number of dots on a dice; it is the winning hand in Pontoon; the final act in a famous university drinking game and the traditional age of majority. 2021 is going to be lucky; the return to normality and remembered as the end of the coronavirus pandemic, at least as an economic event for the major industrialised economies. The health crisis will not be over; restrictions will continue, but the major industrialised economies will move on encouraged by the hope of immunity and faith in their exceptionalism. The rebound after the first lockdown demonstrated that the bigger the fall, the bigger the bounce. The free world will once again ignore mortality and focus on the base levels of Maslow's Hierarchy. The demands of publishing schedules ensured that most 2021 outlooks were written and published in late October and early November before the outcomes of three crucial known unknowns were revealed. These were the Presidential elections and the special Senate elec...